The number of residential property transactions recorded by HMRC has hit the highest level since March 2025, giving agents new hope for the housing market.
The latest HMRC property transactions data shows that on a seasonally adjusted basis the number of UK residential transactions in October was 98,450.
That is 2% lower than October 2024 and 2% higher than September 2025.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in October 2025 was 116,230, 4% higher than October 2024 and 13% higher than September 2025.
A market that has held its nerve
Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, said: “The latest HMRC figures show a market that has held its nerve through a period of heightened uncertainty. October’s seasonally adjusted residential transactions reached 98,450, a 2% rise on September and the strongest level since March 2025, despite being slightly below last October.
“It’s important to remember that these results come from a market where many households were effectively holding their breath ahead of potential property reforms in the Autumn Budget. Now that the Budget has been confirmed, thousands of movers finally have the clarity they need to progress.
“What we’re seeing beneath the headlines is a market underpinned by needs-based buyers and sellers, those upsizing, downsizing, or moving for lifestyle reasons, who have continued to transact regardless of noise around the edges. At the same time, metrics such as mortgage approvals point to an underlying resilience, signalling cautious confidence.
“An increase in homes coming to market compared with last year is giving buyers more choice than they’ve had for some time, which is keeping price growth in check. Looking ahead, affordability is set to improve gradually as wage growth continues to outpace house prices, and borrowing may become more accessible if the Bank of England moves to cut the Base Rate in the coming months. With inflation falling in October, there is growing optimism that another rate cut is on the cards as early as December.
“Taken together, these are encouraging indicators. As we move into the winter period, we expect greater stability and a more decisive return of movers who had been waiting on the sidelines.”
‘A mixed bag’
Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, described it as a mixed bag.
He said: “Whilst there were reports of transactions pressing ahead to beat the Budget deadline, in the main we saw a market on pause.
“However, despite this pitstop, the engine remained fundamentally strong fuelled by lifestyle-led moves. Now the Chancellor’s changes have been announced, there may be a few asset-rich cash-poor homeowners that need to redraw the roadmap, but many will choose to race ahead with the benefit of greater clarity.
“It is likely we will see more stock come to the market in the short term, with minor price adjustments for properties just over the £2m cliff edge. We might also see an increase in demand for homes under the tax limit, where buyers adjust budgets with household cashflow in mind. For the South East, this could create upward pressure on prices in the mid-tier or even lower-end property markets, leading to spillover effects for demand in new areas.”
Jackson-Stops’ national figures show a more selective market overall, Leeming said.
He added: “It’s far from a one-size-fits-all story. Outside the South East, the £500,000 to £800,000 bracket is bucking the trend, with momentum gathering pace – proof that some regions are very much putting their foot back on the gas. We have heard from agents across the country following the Budget that prime buyers are moving at pace with clarity now in mind.
“History shows that when Stamp Duty changes, the housing market doesn’t just react, it leaps. In March, exchanges surged as buyers raced to beat the threshold reduction deadline, only for activity to catch its breath afterwards. Now, the key is keeping transactions moving and prices stable. A fluid market oils far more than estate agency alone: conveyancers, removals, local trades and even retail all rely on housing to keep their wheels turning.”
‘Not an exact science’
Nathan Emerson, chief executive at Propertymark, added: “Typically on the lead up to any Budget announcement, the housing market can witness a degree of hesitation, as people look to assess what might be proposed.
“However, any such impact beforehand is not an exact science to the magnitude of uncertainty. With lower base rates than only twelve months back, it is positive to see forward momentum in terms of growth in the number of housing transactions taking place both year on year and month on month while referring to the non-seasonally adjusted figures.
“Within the Budget, it was disappointing not to witness any support for first-time buyers and assistance for those who may be considering downsizing in the Budget at a time of extreme demand on current housing stock. There has been what feels like a missed opportunity to promote the concept of people being able to move more easily to a property that fits their precise needs.”
Source: Estate Agent Today
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